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Writer's pictureArbat Capital

Oil Market Report - June 2024

Crude oil prices exhibited significant volatility in June 2024 driven by supply-side concerns from OPEC+ and economic data from major economies. The oil market experienced a notable selloff in the first days of the month, with both Brent and WTI grades tumbling to their lowest levels since early February 2024, recording sharp decreases of 5.4% and 5.9% since the end of May, respectively.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Crude oil prices exhibited significant volatility in June 2024 driven by supply-side concerns from OPEC+ and economic data from major economies. The oil market experienced a notable selloff in the first days of the month, with both Brent and WTI grades tumbling to their lowest levels since early February 2024, recording sharp decreases of 5.4% and 5.9% since the end of May, respectively. On June 4, the ICE Brent front-month future dropped to its lowest point at $76.76 per barrel although it was quoted above $84 on May 29 while the NYMEX WTI near-month contract sank to $72.48 comparing to above $80 in late May. This dramatic slump in crude oil prices was triggered by the results of the semi-annual OPEC+ meeting held on June 2. However, the selloff was counterintuitive given the news from OPEC+ regarding sustained production cuts through the end of the year and voluntary cuts by 8 producers totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd) until March next year. The market’s negative reaction stemmed largely from the announcement that OPEC+ planned to trim these cuts through September of the following year. This news raised concerns about a potential premature increase in supply before demand conditions warranted it. Nevertheless, subsequent weeks of June 2024 demonstrated a recovery as the market recalibrated expectations, recognizing OPEC+'s commitment to managing supply despite internal production challenges. Additionally, stagnation in the U.S. crude oil production and positive trader sentiment contributed to the price recovery. Global economic data played a crucial role in crude oil price movements within the month as well. In the U.S., mixed labor statistics and fiscal concerns, coupled with the ECB's rate cut and China's mixed export and import data, also added volatility to the market. As of June 25, crude oil prices completely offset the initial selloff and are going to close the month in the green, staying at their highest levels since late April 2024. As for the month-to-date dynamics, the ICE Brent active contract added in June 2024 $3.11 comparing to the end of May, or +3.8% MoM, while the NYMEX WTI active future rose by $2.92 over the same period of time, or +5.0% MoM.

Brent and WTI crude oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in July 2024 as the ongoing balancing act between supply management by OPEC+ and demand signals from the global economy will continue to shape crude oil price movements in the near term. Fundamentally, supportive factors for oil prices include OPEC+ production management, limited U.S. crude supply growth, and potential economic recovery signals. However, risks from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties could introduce new downside pressures. From a technical point of view, both Brent and WTI active futures have recently returned above their 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bullish technical outlook. If prices continue to hold above these key levels, it could attract further buying interest and reinforce the upward trend. Conversely, a fall below these averages might trigger technical selling and shift sentiment bearish. From a shorter dynamics point of view, key resistance levels for Brent are expected around $86.00, with immediate support at $82.00. For WTI, resistance is seen at $82.00, with support around $78.00. Price movements around these levels will be critical in determining the next directional move. A break above resistance could signal further upside potential, while a breach of support might indicate a further correction.

Global oil production witnessed only a marginal increase in May 2024, with the supply expanding by 65 thousand barrels per day (kbd) from the previous month, according to the most recent monthly data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This change, though slight at just +0.1% MoM, continued to reflect a broader growth trajectory with the output staying above 102 million barrels per day (mbd) for the 3rd straight month, which is rather close to an all-time high. When evaluated on a year-over-year basis, the global supply surge was more pronounced, with an increase of 1.39 mbd, marking a 1.4% YoY rise compared to May 2023. This yearly increment was significant, continuing the year-over-year growth trend for the 37th consequent month. Notably, May 2024 recorded the most rapid annual expansion of the output seen in the last 5 months, indicating a potential acceleration in production activities. Furthermore, when measured against the five-year average for the month of May, the global oil supply in May 2024 also was significantly higher. The reported production level was 5.67 mbd above the five-year average, translating to a substantial 5.9% increase. This notable upward deviation from the historical average further indicates a sustained phase of growth in the global oil production. May 2024 again delivered contrasting trends between OPEC and non-OPEC oil production. While the OPEC output continued to decline both month-over-month and year-over-year, albeit at a slower annual rate, the non-OPEC production exhibited further robust growth, continuing its long-term upward trend.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) provided a more robust numbers of global oil production in May 2024, which, according to the agency, rose by 0.52 mbd during the month to 102.5 mbd, as Brazilian ethanol output surged seasonally. The same time, the IEA revised its forecast of global production growth in 2025 as OPEC+ has laid out a roadmap for unwinding extra voluntary supply reductions of up to 2.2 mbd from 4Q24 through 3Q25. However, given the OPEC’s assurances that the production increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions, the IEA decided to adjust its OPEC+ supply numbers only when such a decision is confirmed. On that basis, global oil supply looks set to rise by 690 kbd on average this year, led by a 1.4 mbd increase from non-OPEC+ countries. Next year could see gains of up to 1.8 mbd in total, with non-OPEC+ up 1.5 mbd and OPEC+ 320 kbd higher. However, with oil demand expected to remain rather weak, global supplies may have to be adjusted lower next year, rather than higher.

OPEC recorded a positive dynamic of its total crude oil production in May 2024, as per cartel’s own data. The output experienced an increment of 54 kbd from the preceding month, marking a 0.2% MoM increase. This increment not only represented the highest production level observed over the past 5 months but also constituted the most rapid month-on-month improvement in the last three months. The increase, although modest, indicated a potentially stabilizing trend in OPEC crude oil production as no more additional output cuts are on the agenda. On a year-over-year basis, the picture was markedly different. Compared to May of the previous year, OPEC crude oil supply decreased in the month under review by 1.47 mbd, translating to a 5.2% YoY reduction. This decline perpetuated a downward trend that has persisted for 14 consecutive months. Despite the ongoing reduction in annual terms, the rate of decline in May 2024 was the slowest observed over the past 6 months, also suggesting a certain stabilization in production dynamics. The major reason behind this poor performance still has been voluntary and obliged under the OPEC+ agreement production cuts. Confirming this idea, when juxtaposed with the five-year average for May, the reported production in May 2024 was 0.52 mbd lower, indicating a 1.9% decrease. Despite to the overall output growth within the month, OPEC-participating states delivered mixed production dynamics in May 2024 as compared to April. Nigeria and Iraq emerged as monthly leaders in production dynamics within the cartel, showing strong recovery and growth. Iran and Venezuela also recorded notable increases in their output, continuing upward trends. Conversely, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Congo were the main outsiders, with significant declines in production, indicating ongoing challenges. Algeria and Libya exhibited mixed results, with Algeria facing continued declines while Libya managed modest gains.

OPEC+ countries set out a timetable for gradually unwinding some of its oil production cuts, following the 37th semi-annual OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on June 2. The agreement reached in Riyadh exceeded expectations in some ways, extending so-called “voluntary” output curbs from key members including Saudi Arabia and Russia well into next year. These 2.2 mbd “voluntary” cuts announced in April and November last year by eight OPEC+ nations, including Algeria, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., will be prolonged by three months until the end of September 2024 and gradually be phased out monthly over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025 to support market stability. This monthly increase can be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. Also, the agreement reached extends the earlier “mandatory” cuts of 3.66 mbd by a year until the end of 2025 and increases U.A.E.’s production quota by 300 kbd starting in January 2025. OPEC+ members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 mbd, or about 5.7% of global demand. The next semi-annual OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is scheduled on December 1, 2024.

The IEA and the EIA again both estimated OPEC total crude oil production in May 2024 higher than the cartel itself, at 27.22 mbd and 26.68 mbd, respectively. However, comparing to the month prior, the gap between IEA’s and OPEC’s assessments widened while the difference between the figures of the EIA and the OPEC itself, conversely, shrank. Thus, the absolute difference of OPEC’s own estimate of its total crude oil output with the IEA’s assessment rose to 591 kbd in May from 395 kbd in April, translating to +2.2% relative difference. In turn, the gap between EIA’s and OPEC’s estimates diminished to insignificant 51 kbd from 295 kbd a month ago, which equals to just +0.2%. Nevertheless, May 2024 was the 4th sequential month when both the IEA and the EIA provided higher numbers of OPEC total crude oil supply than the cartel itself. Higher estimates of the total production in May 2024, provided by the IEA and the EIA, were again attributed mainly to higher assessments of supply in several key OPEC-participating states such as Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Iraq, Kuwait and Iran. On the other hand, both agencies were more pessimistic in evaluating monthly crude oil production in Nigeria.

Non-OPEC total oil production demonstrated a positive trajectory in May 2024, with the output rising by 0.27 mbd from the prior month, marking a 0.4% MoM increase. This monthly growth, although moderate, signified the group's ability to maintain steady production levels. The year-over-year analysis revealed a more substantial increase, with the non-OPEC output expanding by 1.60 mbd compared to May 2023, representing a robust 2.3% YoY growth. This sustained upward year-over-year trend in the production has been ongoing for more than 3 years (37 months), underscoring the consistent strength and resilience of non-OPEC oil producers in meeting global energy demands. When contextualized against historical data, the output in May 2024 was significantly higher than the five-year average for this month. Specifically, the reported value exceeded the five-year average by 5.09 mbd, equating to a substantial 7.8% increase. This notable deviation from the historical norm indicates that the non-OPEC oil production is not only recovering from past downturns but is also achieving new levels of output.

All the monthly growth of the total non-OPEC oil supply in May 2024 was delivered by just countries – Brazil and the United States – which provided around 0.6 mbd increase in oil output. Brazil's sharp monthly increase was attributed mainly to the seasonal pattern of oil supply in this country, but significant annual growth indicated expanding production capacity. This rapid growth contrasted with the more gradual, albeit consistent, increases seen in the United States, which maintains a steady upward trend in both monthly and yearly production metrics. However, these monthly gains were partly offset by decline production volumes in such non-OPEC major oil producers as Canada, Russia and Norway with a total impact of almost -0.3 mbd by contrast to the prior month. Despite the recent monthly declines, both Canada and Norway recorded robust annual growth of their output as well as positive performance against the five-year averages for May. In contrast, Russia's ongoing monthly and annual declines in oil production highlighted deeper, more sustained challenges, with its production reaching a two-year low and reflecting broader regional downturns in the CIS.

Total oil production in the United States saw a noticeable change in May 2024, as per the most recent EIA’s data. The monthly oil supply exhibited an uptick of 182 kbd compared to April 2024, representing a modest 0.8% MoM increase. This incremental rise was the first monthly gain over the recent three months but the 12th straight month of production volumes in the country being above the threshold of 22.0 mbd. Examining the year-over-year data revealed a more substantial increase in production. The supply surged by 0.85 mbd from May 2023, marking a significant 3.9% YoY growth. This notable annual increase underscores the robust expansion trajectory the U.S. oil sector has been on. Remarkably, this increase marks the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year growth, highlighting a persistent upward trend in production levels. When placed against the backdrop of the past five years, the U.S. oil production figures for May 2024 stood out even more. The supply this month exceeded the five-year average for May by a substantial 3.04 mbd, translating to a 15.7% increase, furthermore reflecting a strong growth momentum in output comparing to historical norms.

However, the production of shale oil in the United States experienced only a modest increase in May 2024 of just 12 kbd comparing to the previous month, translating to a subtle +0.1% MoM change. Hence, this marginal increment marked the highest output recorded over the past 5 months, continuing a 4-month streak of month-over-month increases. However, it is noteworthy that this was the slowest monthly expansion observed during this period of permanent growth. On a year-over-year basis, the U.S. shale oil output surged in May 2024 by 291 kbd, a 3.0% YoY rise compared to May of the previous year. This growth extended the upward YoY trend to 37 months, despite being the slowest annual build-up in the past 4 months. Meantime, the reported output level stood 1.5 mbd higher than the five-year average for this month of a year, reflecting a substantial 17.7% increase. 

World oil demand growth continues to slow, with 2024 gains now seen at 960 kbd, as per the most recent monthly report of the IEA, which is 100 kbd below the previous agency’s forecast. US and European data undershot expectations as exceptional gasoil weakness aligned with challenging industrial conditions. Overall annual gains in March of 650 kbd for non-OECD countries failed to offset the 815 kbd contraction in the OECD, resulting in an overall decline in demand of 165 kbd year-on-year. Preliminary data for April and May points to further weakness, with Chinese demand growth slumping from 800 kbd on average in 1Q24 to only 95 kbd in April. Oil’s subdued outlook is expected to carry forward into 2025, with a modest increase of 1 mbd reflecting lackluster economic growth, an expanding EV fleet and vehicle efficiency gains.

Meantime, the U.S. EIA presented a more optimistic view on global oil consumption in May 2024, which, according to this agency, demonstrated a notable positive shift, increasing by 0.45 mbd from the previous month. This 0.4% MoM rise marked a significant departure from the prior two-month downward trend. The monthly increase also was the most rapid observed over the last quarter, signaling a certain kind of reversal in previous consumption patterns. Comparing to a year ago, global oil demand exhibited a marginal decline in the month under report, falling by roughly 40 kbd from May 2023, or less than -0.1% YoY. Albeit insignificant, this decline interrupted an upward trajectory that has been consistent for the preceding 16 months, being the worst annual dynamics of the consumption over the past 1.5 years. When assessed against the five-year average for May, the reported figures for 2024 still have revealed a substantial increase of 5.12 mbd, which translates to a solid 5.3% rise. The oil consumption data for May 2024 revealed a clear divergence between OECD and non-OECD countries. While the OECD group was experiencing a mild yet persistent decline in oil demand, both in monthly and yearly terms, the non-OECD group continues to see strong growth.

Global observed oil inventories built by 19.3 million barrels (mb) in April 2024 in accordance with the preliminary data provided by the IEA. On land stocks surged by 83.5 mb after eight-months of draws, while oil on water plunged by 64.2 mb following 112.6 mb of increases in the previous two months. OECD commercial oil inventories rose in by April 32.1 mb, largely in line with seasonal trends, but remained 94.7 mb below their five-year average. In May 2024, global observed onshore oil inventories swelled for a second consecutive month as lackluster demand met with robust oil supply. Preliminary, albeit incomplete, data show oil stocks rising by another 48.2 mb relative to the level of April 2024, led by the United States and China.

Meantime, total commercial oil inventories within the OECD experienced a notable shift from the trend of the prior months in March 2024, as per detailed data of the IEA, decreasing by 1.5 million tons from the previous month, or -0.3% MoM. This drop resulted in the lowest inventory levels observed over the last quarter and effectively disrupted a three-month streak of rising oil stock levels. The rate of this month-over-month decline was particularly striking, as it represented the most rapid contraction seen in the past 5 months. However, preliminary data on stocks dynamics in April and May suggests that this decline was just a short-term volatility in the context of a broader upward trajectory.  Nevertheless, examining the year-over-year data, the total oil inventories in the OECD also fell by 5.1 million tons compared to the same period in the previous year, translating to a 1.1% YoY decline. This reduction was part of a prolonged downward trend that has persisted for nearly 3 years (35 months). Interestingly, this was the slowest annual rate of decline recorded in the last 6 months, suggesting a possible deceleration in the rate at which inventories are shrinking. When assessed against the five-year average for May, the reported inventory levels were substantially lower as well. The reported value was 47.3 million tons below the average, reflecting a significant 9.2% drop.

U.S. total oil inventories experienced a notable increase in May 2024 of 24.19 million barrels (mb) from the previous month, representing a 1.5% MoM change. This surge marked the highest inventory level recorded in the past 8 months and sustained a positive month-over-month trend for 3 consecutive months. Furthermore, this growth rate was the most rapid observed in the last 8 months. On an annual basis, the total oil stocks in the United States rose by 13.22 mb compared to May 2023, providing a 0.8% YoY increase and effectively reversing a 4-month-long downward year-over-year trend. Notably, this year-over-year growth was the fastest seen in the past 39 months (more than 3 years). However, when benchmarked against the five-year average for May, the reported total oil inventories were significantly lower by 227.13 mb, expressing a substantial 12.2% decline. Both major components of the total U.S. oil inventories – the SPR and commercial inventories – continued to grow in May 2024 and reached new highs over several month. The SPR demonstrated a marked recovery with robust year-over-year growth, though still lagging significantly behind its five-year average. Meanwhile, the commercial inventories, despite more robust monthly gains, reflected a continuing annual decline, remaining below historical averages as well.

Meanwhile, the crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage facility in Oklahoma experienced increased in May 2024 by 1.95 mb from the previous month, reflecting a substantial 5.8% MoM change. This rise marked the highest inventory level observed over the past 11 months, indicating a robust accumulation trend continued over the last 4 months. These figures starkly contrasted with the same period last year, as the year-over-year comparison showed a decrease of 3.45 mb, representing an 8.9% YoY decline. This year-over-year downward trend has persisted for the past 5 months, underscoring a significant reduction in inventories in the longer-run. The year-over-year decline rate recorded in May 2024 was the most pronounced over the past three months, highlighting the accelerated pace of inventory drawdowns. When juxtaposed against the five-year average for May, the reported stockpile levels at Cushing were notably lower by 6.99 million barrels, equating to a 16.5% decrease.

Global offshore stocks of crude oil underwent a significant transformation in May 2024, increasing by 25.0 million barrels (mb) from the previous month. This marked a substantial 36.5% MoM change, propelling the inventories to their highest level in the past 10 months. The pace of this month-over-month growth was unparalleled over the last 4 years (49 months), underscoring the remarkable nature of this development. Delving into the year-over-year comparison, the floating oil stockpiles worldwide presented a different picture. There was a contraction of 3.3 mb compared to May of the previous year, representing a 3.4% YoY decrease. This decline extended the downward trend observed over the past 8 months, although it was noteworthy for being the slowest rate of year-over-year decline within this period. This indicates a potential stabilization the decline that had characterized the market for several months. When juxtaposed against the five-year average for May, the reported stockpile levels were 9.0 mb below this average, translating to an 8.8% drop.

A notable growth of the overall global stocks in May 2024 was driven by simultaneous expansion of inventories in all major regions of the world. Thus, the Middle East Gulf saw a substantial increase in stockpiles, reaching the highest levels in 18 months, driven by significant month-over-month and year-over-year growth. Europe likewise reported robust inventory gains, marking the fastest year-over-year growth in 13 months. Meanwhile, the North Sea exhibited a dramatic surge in inventories, breaking a recent downward trend, and the US Gulf Coast continued its upward trajectory with significant annual growth. Conversely, Asia experienced a modest monthly rise but continued a year-over-year decline, highlighting ongoing regional adjustments. And West Africa exhibited a mixed pattern with recent increases overshadowed by a year-over-year decline, yet still significantly above its five-year average.



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