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Writer's pictureArbat Capital

Commercial Real Estate Report - November 2024

US REITs underperformed the broad market in October after three consecutive months of outperformance and for the second time over the last 6 months. But it was the 15th time of weaker dynamics vs the broad market over the last 21 months.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


US REITs underperformed the broad market in October after three consecutive months of outperformance and for the second time over the last 6 months. But it was the 15th time of weaker dynamics vs the broad market over the last 21 months. On an absolute basis, US REITs ended the month in the red, for the first time over the last 6 months or for the third time over the last year. Thus, the BBREIT index decreased by 4.0% MoM in October vs -1.0% MoM of the SPX index. The October absolute performance was -0.8 std from the mean monthly performance, and it was in the bottom 16% of absolute monthly performance in the index history. In turn, the October relative performance was -3.0% MoM. It is -0.6 std from the mean monthly performance, and it is in the bottom 25% of relative performance vs the SPX index since the BBREIT index inception. Moreover, the first decade of November wasn’t strong for US REITs either. Hence, the index increased only by 5.3% ytd vs +25.5% ytd of the SPX index as of November 13, 2024. The performance of the BBREIT index on a relative basis during the first 10 months of 2024 remained quite weak, -0.7 std from the mean. US REITs remained volatile in 2024, and the volatility increased significantly in September and October, mainly driven by a reverse movement of interest rate expectations and the start of the 3Q24 earnings season. So, dynamics of major CRE sectors were quite mixed in October. However, the difference of monthly price changes of the best and the worst performers among top 50 REITs from the BBREIT index decreased slightly in October to 31.0% from 34.3% in September.

As a result of still weak both absolute and relative performance yoy, US REITs’ valuations remained depressed even despite a notable reverse movement in recent months. Relative valuations vs the SPX index still kept going down on a yoy basis, staying near the lowest levels over more than 20 years. In turn, absolute valuations don’t look extremely cheap vs historical averages, given still elevated rates, even after their significant decline in recent months. Thus, P/B of the BBREIT index was 2.52x as of November 13, 2024, +0.46 std from the mean since April 2002, and +0.26x since the end of June 2024. P/Sales of the BBREIT index increased by 0.6x from the end of June to 6.65x as of November 13, 2024 vs the average since May 2002 of 5.6x. In turn, a discount to the SPX index on P/B was 52% as of November 13, 2024 vs the average discount since 2002 of 21%, -1.8 std. As for P/Sales, the current premium to the SPX index was 114% vs the average premium of 220%, -1.6 std. On P/FFO basis, a median of REITs was 18.3x as of November 13, 2024 vs the historical average of 17.9x, or +0.1 std. In turn, median dividend yield of the 50 largest BBREIT index members was 3.7% as of November 13, 2024 vs the historical average of 4.05%, or -0.3 std. On EV/EBITDA basis, the median figure of REITs was 20.3x as of November 13, 2024 vs the historical average of 19.8x, or +0.15 std, which is quite consistent with still relatively low financial risks of majority companies in the segment, even taking into account growth of refinancing risks. As for individual names, multipliers are still quite different, but the dispersion across REITs has decreased significantly in the recent 2 years. Thus, median P/FFO estimates for the offices segment were 11.5x/11.4x for FY24/25 as of November 13, 2024 vs industrial’s ratios of 19.4x/17.6x.

The October US employment report highlighted gradual cooling of the labor market again after some signs of stabilization in September. At least, labor market indicators revealed during recent weeks were relatively weak across the board with softer payrolls and JOLTs but better ADP data. Thus, payrolls increased only by 12K in October vs the consensus of 100K, the third miss over the last 4 months. JOLTs vacancies tumbled by 418K to 7.44 mln in September, the 6th decline in 2024, missing the consensus by 557K. So, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has already turned below pre-pandemic levels, staying at just 1.09x in September, near the lowest figure over more than 6 years. According to the Fed, “since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased”. In turn, US GDP growth in 3Q24 was slightly weaker than expected, but much stronger than a relatively slow growth rate in 1Q24. Thus, US GDP increased by 2.8% qoq in 3Q24 vs the consensus of 2.9% qoq. It was again driven by better consumer spending, but it wasn’t strong across the board, driven mainly by higher-income households. So, given Fed’s attention was still focused on the labor market, the federal funds target range was lowered again at the November meeting, for the second consecutive time. Nonetheless, uncertainty about Fed’s monetary policy in 1-2 years increased notably, given recent election results and expected notable changes to the US macro policy. On the other hand, all these changes are not on the agenda yet, and their impact will at best become noticeable in 2H25. So, despite the Fed will continue to cut rates in the nearest quarters, interest rate expectations have increased again recently. Thus, it is expected again that the federal funds rate will be well above 3.5% at the end of 2025, implying an ongoing pressure on CRE fundamentals. The good news is that it is still expected that a recession in the nearest 12 months will occur with a probability of just 25%, the lowest figure over more than 2 years.

Better 3Q24 earnings were overshadowed by growth of interest rates in October. US REITs beat estimates by headline numbers again in 3Q24, but the earnings season couldn’t be called strong across the board, even despite 2024 guidance improvement. Thus, more than 75% of our sample of REITs reported higher revenue with a median surprise of +0.9%, and around 60% of the sample exceeded net income estimates with a median surprise of +3% vs +5% in 2Q24. However, market perception of 3Q24 earnings was negative as the BBREIT index decreased by 2.6% since the start of the earnings season until November 13, 2024, underperforming the broad market by 5.4%. Moreover, EPS/revenue estimates almost didn’t change since the start of 3Q24 reporting, remaining also roughly flat ytd. But REITs’ earnings weren’t a key driver of the quotes in two recent years. In turn, the correlation between average monthly 10yr treasury yield and the BBREIT index was -0.87 since the beginning of 2022, but it decreased slightly during the last months. So, a notable growth of rate expectations in October was more important for REITs than better earnings, given strong outperformance of the sector in three previous months. In turn, we don’t expect any significant deterioration of REITs’ operating results under the ‘soft landing’ scenario, which still remains the baseline one. At least, the underlying property market continued moving towards equilibrium, even despite still elevated rates, which were the key driver of prices decline as well as collapse of transaction volumes during the previous years. Thus, CPPI decreased just by 1.9% on a yoy basis in September while the property prices decline decelerated notably in all key CRE subsets, but transaction volumes still remain depressed across the board. Elimination of the uncertainty regarding the US presidential elections outcome could impact positively on investor interest in the property market. However, banks, the key source of CRE funding, continued tightening lending standards in 3Q24 and expected further tightening of standards in the rest of the year, albeit forecasting higher demand. In turn, deterioration of underlying fundamentals decelerated recently, while the second derivatives of key fundamentals continue improving. Moreover, fundamentals of the majority of CRE subsets don’t look weak, remaining quite far from crisis levels. In other words, market fears about CRE were exaggerated. However, given current valuations and interest rate expectations as well as relatively weak revenue growth expectations for the nearest quarters, we don’t expect any significant outperformance of the sector near-term. So, we still remain neutral on the sector, but gradually becoming more optimistic.



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